With a quieter than normal hurricane season we have not experienced any disruption in fuel supplies. Additionally, refineries are switching to their less expensive blend of winter fuel. When you combine that good news from refineries with the fact that summer has officially ended and fuel demand has dropped off, you can expect a price drop at the pump of between 10 and 25 cents.

With President Obama easing off the military threat to Syria, you can look to prices falling to around the $3 per gallon price or lower by Thanksgiving. In fact, in Florida, prices have already dropped an average of 12 cents per gallon according to Mark Jenkins, a spokesman for AAA. They should know as they survey more than 120,000 gas stations nationwide and have their finger on the pulse of American fuel prices.

Jenkins added, “All the elements are in place to continue falling,” but doubted they would fall below $3 a gallon. All bets are off if we have a late hurricane in the Gulf of Mexico or a military conflict affecting the Middle East’s oil producing region.

Of course, once Thanksgiving comes around, demand will likely increase as people begin holiday driving again and the weather turns cooler, motivating folks to fire up their furnaces, especially in the North.